یعقوب یوسفوند

Defense of the country and production of security as a public good is one of the main functions of the government, and in order to realize this function, it should have the most favorable and efficient policies in this field. Today, the global system is facing chaos and certain complications due to changes in various fields of science and technology, communication and information, economy and politics, etc. In a way that has a critical order or a kind of order in chaos.In such a system, irregular, non-linear and unpredictable behavior patterns prevail. Therefore, the mystery of security and how to provide security and comfort to people is always one of the main concerns of countries in the field of defense-security policies. Therefore, according to the complex and chaotic environment of the international system, defense-security policymaking is considered a very delicate and precise science and art, and governments should choose the best decisions and the most desirable measures. Defense-security to face the threats and achieve the prospects, goals and national interests in today's relatively vague and uncertain and changing world.

The Islamic Republic of Iran has been exposed to a wide range of hard and soft threats due to its geopolitical and geoeconomic position, as well as the political and ideological coordinates of the Islamic Revolution, and has been facing the security puzzle for a long time. Considering the complex and chaotic nature of the international system, today the mystery of self-defense and creating security has become more complex and challenging, and the importance and sensitivity of attention to defense-security policy has been strengthened. Because on the one hand, it will provide national goals and interests, and on the other hand, it is related to the survival and destiny of the country.

Based on this, this research aims to analyze the issue that in this atmosphere full of threats of complex and chaotic systems, events and consequences of social, economic, political, environmental, technological and value factors that are effective in defense-security policy making. What are the J.A. of Iran? Considering the strengths and weaknesses, threats and opportunities of the internal and external environment of the Islamic Republic of Iran, what are the appropriate strategies?

To answer these questions, using the analytical-exploratory method and with a future-research approach, first by studying the literature and the background of the research, and then through interviews with ۱۲ people (sample size) of experts, experts and presenters related to the subject. Research (statistical research community), the necessary data has been obtained and the relationship between research variables has been analyzed. The statistical population was selected through the method of chain sampling (snowball), and the data from the interviews were qualitatively analyzed using the STEEPV trend analysis method. During the research, according to the STEEPV factors, regarding the statistics of possible trends and events on the defense-security policy of the Republic of Iran, a meeting was held with ۵ professors and experts using the brainstorming method, and the possible trends It has been obtained on this subject.

In general, the results of the research in the framework of the theory of complexity and chaos in international systems indicate that: The Islamic Republic of Iran is facing major challenges, weaknesses and threats in the internal and external spheres, which should adopt an effective and efficient policy in order to solve these problems and problems, and with optimal utilization of the existing capacities and opportunities in order to reduce the threats and Neutralize them. Failure to solve the above-mentioned issues will weaken the position and stability of the political system in the field of complex and chaotic international systems and will face serious security and defense challenges. Successful transition from internal issues and dealing with external threats requires the use of effective strategies in defense-security policy. In this research, based on the pattern of STEEPV trend analysis and SWOT analysis, necessary strategies for solving problems and dealing with threats have been presented in the form of four offensive, conservative, competitive and defensive patterns, which can be adapted to the conditions and requirements of time and Makani used an effective strategy. Looking at non-linear and risky policy-making and chaotic nature, uncertainty, unpredictability, evolution, dynamism and asymmetry of order in complex and chaotic systems, application of science and knowledge, rationality, realism, future Foresight and foresight, flexibility and the priority of national interests over other interests are the necessities of defense-security policy in these systems.